SUBMITTED TO EGU25-12648HOLOS-IE: A System Model for Assessing Carbon Emissions and Balance in Agricultural Systems
Agriculture significantly contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mainly via enteric and manure methane (CH4) from livestock and fertilizer-induced nitrous oxide (N2O) from soils. Mitigation strategies include dietary changes, feed additives, and fertilisation with circularity approaches. Agroforestry further offsets GHGs through carbon sequestration (soil and biomass) while enhancing soil health and ecosystem services. Achieving carbon-neutral farms by 2050 requires sustainable agricultural transformation. System-based modelling is crucial for understanding agriculture, supporting informed decision-making, and balancing data needs. HOLOS-IE, evolving into HOLOS-EU, simplifies complex modelling for farmers and stakeholders, empowering them to reduce their environmental footprint and achieve sustainable production. The HOLOS-IE v3.0 (www.ucd.ie/holos-ie) utilises large datasets, evidence-based algorithms, GIS, Machine Learning, and C#.NET coding. The ongoing development focuses on refining model components (crops, grasses, livestock, agroforestry and farm infrastructure), and their sub-components. These components are driven by key soil, climate and relevant variables, which are automated or user-defined inputs. As a case study, HOLOS-IE was applied to a 30-hectare Irish dairy farm to explore agroforestry scenarios (silvopastoral systems with Oak and Sycamore hedgerows) by sparing 5% of land without reducing livestock density. The model predicted sectoral GHG emissions, carbon removal, and total/net carbon balance, quantifying soil and biomass carbon sequestration. This analysis highlighted the offsetting potential and provided insights into total and net carbon balances, guiding future land-use planning for climate change mitigation... [TENTATIVE]
• Copernicus Publications• January 2025